The 2013 Nobel Prizes: Successful Thomson Reuters Predictions

October 2013

In the second week of October, the customary announcement of the Nobel Prizes elevated a small group of scientists to worldwide fame. But even before the Nobel committee declared its selections, most of the winners had already been identified as likely Nobel recipients by Thomson Reuters, as part of its annual selection of Citation Laureates.

Of this year’s 11 Nobel winners in Physiology or Medicine, Chemistry, Physics, and Economics, 8 had been distinguished beforehand by Thomson Reuters as being “of Nobel class,” chiefly by virtue of their many highly cited papers indexed in the Web of Science.

To summarize:

2013 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine

The winners: James E. Rothman (Yale University), Randy W. Schekman (University of California, Berkeley), and Thomas C. Südhof (Stanford University)

"for their discoveries of machinery regulating vesicle traffic, a major transport system in our cells"

In 2009, Thomson Reuters forecast the following for a Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine:

James E. Rothman, Fergus F. Wallace Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Professor and Chairman of Cell Biology, Professor of Chemistry, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA, and

Randy Schekman, Professor of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA; also, Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator

“for their research on cellular membrane trafficking”

2013 Nobel Prize in Physics

The winners: Francois Englert (Université Libre de Bruxelles) and Peter W. Higgs (University of Edinburgh)

“for the theoretical discovery of a mechanism that contributes to our understanding of the origin of mass of subatomic particles, and which recently was confirmed through the discovery of the predicted fundamental particle, by the ATLAS and CMS experiments at CERN's Large Hadron Collider"

This year, Thomson Reuters forecast the following for a Nobel Prize in Physics:

François Englert, Professor Emeritus, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium, and Affiliate, Institute for Quantum Studies, Chapman University, Orange, CA USA, and

Peter W. Higgs, Professor Emeritus, University of Edinburgh, Scotland UK

“for their prediction of the Brout-Englert-Higgs boson”

2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry

The winners: Martin Karplus (University of Strasbourg and Harvard University), Michael Levitt (Stanford University), and Arieh Warshel (University of Southern California)

"for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems"

In 2011 Thomson Reuters forecast the following:

Martin Karplus, Theodore William Richards Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA USA and Director, Laboratory of Biophysical Chemistry, ISIS, Louis Pasteur University, Strasbourg, France

“for pioneering simulations of the molecular dynamics of biomolecules”

2013 Nobel Prize in Economics

The winners: Eugene F. Fama (University of Chicago), Lars Peter Hansen (University of Chicago),  and Robert J. Shiller (Yale University)

"for their empirical analysis of asset prices"

All three winners were predicted by Thomson Reuters, in the following years.

In 2002:

Eugene F. Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL USA

“for contributions to the efficient market hypothesis”

In 2008:

Lars P. Hansen, Homer J. Livingston Distinguished Service Professor, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL USA

“for contributions to dynamic econometric models”

And in 2012:

Robert J. Shiller, Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics and Professor of Finance at the International Center for Finance, Yale University, New Haven, CT USA

“for pioneering contributions to financial market volatility and the dynamics of asset prices”

For the complete list of successful Thomson Reuters predictions since 2002, and for information on all the Nobel-class researchers announced this year and in years past, as well as on the science and art of predicting Nobel Prizes, please visit the Citation Laureates page.

The data and citation records included in this report are from Thomson Reuters Web of ScienceTM. Web of ScienceTM is a registered trademark of Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.