FAST BREAKING PAPERS - 2008

Why do you think your paper is highly cited?

A combination of good timing combined with clear and surprising results.

Does it describe a new discovery, methodology, or synthesis of knowledge?

The paper describes a new discovery; in addition, the paper also provides a new methodology which had not previously been used in this field. Indeed, much of our work rests on the analysis of large data sets using fairly advanced statistical techniques—I’ve been fortunate to have been collaborating with a broad spectrum of statisticians over the years.

Would you summarize the significance of your paper in layman's terms?

Before the publication of this paper the general understanding was that small birds spending the winter in Africa had not changed their timing of spring migration to the same extent as birds spending the whole year in Europe. Furthermore, there seemed to be a consensus view that any advancement of spring arrival in Central and Northern Europe could be explained by more rapid migration through Europe.

We clearly showed that songbirds wintering in Africa have advanced their timing of spring arrival in Scandinavia at least to the same extent as other small birds wintering in Europe. Furthermore, the earlier arrival is detectable already in southern Italy, which suggests that they either leave Africa earlier or migrate faster through Africa. We also opened up for a discussion about to what extent these patterns suggest that evolutionary changes are taking place.

How did you become involved in this research, and were there any problems along the way?

The project grew out of a lifelong interest in what casus ecological changes such as the timing of bird migration. When we started a Nordic Centre of Excellence (EcoClim) I was offered the opportunity to join forces in the analysis of long-term data on bird migration based upon highly accurate observations at several Nordic bird observatories. From the very start, I wanted to make our work on bird migration the flagship of EcoClim—which it became through the publication of the Science paper now being highlighted. Through the Nordic (and European) collaboration, we obtained access to lots of data as well as the utilization of a team of devoted and talented scholars who profoundly complemented each other.

Where do you see your research leading in the future?

The next step is to focus on how the timing of biological events, such as migration and breeding, affect fitness in terms of survival and reproduction. Also we would like to know more about what makes a given species more or less vulnerable to environmental changes following from climate change. I do see a real possibility for extending the Nordic platform into a broader European platform.

Do you foresee any social or political implications for your research?

To observe that bird migrations change directly in response to climate change—and that these changes might have caused evolutionary changes, may contribute to making politicians and laypeople aware of the seriousness of climate change. Once we can quantify the relative importance of, e.g., climate change, forestry, agriculture, etc. for population viability in migratory birds, there will clearly be implications for any country striving for sustainable development.

Nils Chr. Stenseth
Professor and Chair of Ecology and Evolution
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES)
Department of Biology
Oslo, Norway

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Related Information:

• Nils Chr. Stenseth is featured in ISIHighlyCited.com

• Nils Chr. Stenseth

• CR SPECIAL 17 looks at the effects of climate on bird migration. The phenology of bird migration is linked to the timing of the onset of spring and fall, and is thus affected by climate variation and change.

Keywords: spring migration, migratory birds, timing of bird migration, Nordic Centre of Excellence (EcoClim), Nordic bird observatories, migration.